tugas 2 bahasa inggris tentang ekonomi manajemen berunsur simple past dan past perfect tense

Tugas 2 bahasa inggris

Can Russia's Economy Recover in 2016? (Op-Ed)

• By Martin Gilman
• Dec. 24 2015 17:20
• Last edited 11:36

A. Astakhova / Vedomosti

Martin Gilman

A year ago it seemed that the Russian economy was in free-fall. One rating agency, when downgrading Russian credit early last January, cited a significant deterioration in the economic outlook, the continued impact of western sanctions, plunging oil prices, shocks to the banking sector (from the ruble depreciation, market volatility and drastic hikes in policy rates) as some of the main reasons.

The turmoil in Russian markets toward the end of last year came on top of a period where most of the main macro-economic indicators were already a source of growing concern. As the International Monetary Fund noted last summer, Russia already entered 2014 with declining potential growth owing to the stabilization of oil prices, stalled structural reforms, weak investment, declining total factor productivity and adverse population dynamics. In addition, the ongoing slowdown was exacerbated by the dual external shocks from the sharp decline in oil prices and sanctions.

With Chinese demand withering and US shale producers coming on stream, OPEC became increasingly an irrelevant sideshow. In these circumstances, the seemingly irreversible softening in oil prices led to severe pressure on the ruble, a surge in inflation, market turbulence, and concerns over financial stability. In response, the authorities accelerated their long-anticipated move to a floating exchange rate in November 2014, thus protecting both the budget and foreign exchange reserves. As the ruble dropped, inflation accelerated and hit double digits on an annual basis starting in December 2014.

The accelerating decline in world oil prices and the steady strengthening of the US dollar in the second half of 2015 have imposed a double whammy on the Russian economy. In retrospect, the forecasts of a year ago now appear to have been far too optimistic with respect to both of these parameters over which Russia has no control. Real income has declined along with productive investment. In the climate of uncertainty prevailing this year, not to mention geo-political concerns, neither consumers nor enterprises were anxious to spend. Bank borrowing has reflected this relative abstention.

As a consequence, real GDP is now expected to decline by 3-4 percent driven by a contraction in domestic demand weighed down by falling real wages, high interest rates, and weakened confidence. With the underlying determinants so much worse than foreseen earlier in 2015, it says something about the resilience of the economy that the expected outturn is not even worse. For technical reasons, there is a reasonable chance that the poor results for this year may be revised upwards.

Like the rest of the world, there is nothing that Russia can do about the surging value of the US dollar. From 52 rubles to a dollar a year ago, the exchange rate now stands at 71 rubles, a depreciation of 27 percent. Russia is not alone. Even the Euro has depreciated by about 11 percent. By allowing the ruble rate to adjust, the Central Bank has been able to maintain its foreign exchange reserves, limiting the drop to 4 percent.

But what about next year? Many observers consider that the economic situation will continue to unravel.

There has been considerable hand-wringing about Russian economic prospects. This is no surprise as the oil price this week hovers around its lowest point in 11 years, or just over $34 per barrel. No doubt the prices of Russian assets reflect a significant risk premium to compensate for a potential crisis situation on the back of further drop in oil prices, geo-political confrontations, on-going sanctions (and the associated limited access to markets, banking sector stress, and corporate default concerns), and deeper economic stress — since all of these risks are biased to the downside in the near term. And, in the longer term, there are of course additional concerns such as the rule of law, the protection of property rights and the general legal framework, which are clearly not among Russia's competitive advantages.

This may be too pessimistic. Modest growth should resume in 2016. However, the recovery is likely to be modest as the limiting factors behind decelerating potential growth will take time to be addressed, leading to medium-term growth of 1-2 percent per year.

Unfortunately, despite all the talk about economic diversification, the years of high oil prices discouraged the galvanization of political will to pursue tough structural reforms to improve the investment climate. A long period of oil prices below $ 40 per barrel might just be the trigger to induce piece-meal structural changes as foreshadowed in President Putin's annual address to the Federal Assembly earlier this month.

It could also be that the pervasive sense of pessimism has been overdone. When we start back to work after the New Year's holidays, we should not be too surprised by the headlines reporting the welcome drop in inflation back into single digits (largely because of base effects, but real nevertheless). And barring a geo-political disruption, the CBR will be able to proceed rapidly to cut its benchmark discount rate starting in the first quarter of 2016.

That said, medium-term prospects remain highly uncertain. The external environment is not benign: there are just too many accidents waiting to happen in economic and financial terms, whether in the Eurozone, the Middle East, China, or Japan. And more fundamentally, if Russian policy-makers cannot summon the political will to promote a thriving private sector, then productive investment as the critical driver of long term sustainable growth will not materialize.

Martin Gilman is a former senior representative of the International Monetary Fund in Russia and a professor at the Higher School of Economics.

NAMA            :MUHAMMAD RIZKI FAJRIN

KELAS           :4EA14

NPM               :14212826

tugas 1 bahasa inggris tentang saol verb agreement dan error analysis

CONTOH SOAL VERB AGREEMENT

1. Septina and I … baking sponge cakes at this time yesterday.

• were
• was

2. Whether to buy or rent a house … an important financial question.

• are
• is

3. … Tika or her co-workers sleep at work?

• does
• do

4. Physics … been my favorite subject since I was 15 years old.

• has
• have

5 Mumps usually … through saliva.

• spreads
• spread

6. My shears … sharp enough.

• aren't
• isn't

7. Eighty percentage of his furniture … old.

• are
• is

8. There … many ways to say “thank you”.

• are
• is

9. One of her cats … like tuna.

• doesn't
• don't

10. The central office manager, along with his two assistant, … left the room.

• have
• has

1. Most people ( like, likes ) to go to zoo
2. Ten minutes ( is, are ) more than enough time to complete this job
3. A number of students in the class ( speak, speaks ) speak English
4. Oranges, tomatoes, cabbages, and fresh strawberry ( is, are ) rich vit. C
5. Making cakes and pies ( is, are ) Mrs. Rudy speciality
6. Half of this money ( belong, belongs ) to you
7. Each boy in the class ( has, have ) his own book
8. None of the animals in the zoo ( is, are ) free
9. Some of fruit in this bowl ( is, are ) rotten
10. One of the chief materials in bones and teeth ( is, are ) Calcium
11. Each of the students ( has, have ) notebook
12. None of  the students  ( was, were  ) late today
13. I (am,are) playing guitar
14. Each girl in the class (has,have) her own pencil
15. Half of this car (belong,belongs) to you

CONTOH SOAL ERROR ANALYSIS

 1. Should we really speak of the “breakdown” of families when we are perhaps witnessing new family forms and a new social structure arising late capitalism?

A. Should we

B. when we are

C. arising

D. speak of

2. Public opinion polls have consistently demonstrated the public’s willingness for 'tradeoff' economic growth for environmental protection.

A. opinion polls

B. consistently

C. for

D. environmental

3. The economy is heavy dependent on industry, and economic growth has always been of greater concern than environmental preservation.

A. heavy

B. on industry

C. has always been

D. than

4. Advocacy for child war victims, children in hazardous work, abused children and those variously exploited or handicapped has attracted the attention and commitment of legislators and policy-makers through the world.

A. in

B. those

C. has attracted

D. through

5. The increase population, and rapid economic growth in recent years, have put a large and increasing stress on the water resources and environment in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

A. increase

B. in recent years

C. on the water resources

D. in

6. Most of the large industries in the country are well organised and structured and are sometimes backed up internationally reputable mother companies.

A. Most of

B. in the

C. are

D.backed up

7. Full-time jobs for men are declining, while more women are finding part- and full-time work. The result is declining social status for men so they lose their role as the sole financial provider.

A. while

B. is

C. so

D. as

8. The camp on the inhospitable, mosquito-infested banks of the River Sekonyer, was set up to track the primates and learn from their habitat, diet and behaviour.

A. mosquito-infested

B. set up

C. learn from

D. diet and behaviour

9. Italian citizens lead their counterparts in the UK, France and Germany in supporting moves to bring the service standards and practices of government's departments closer to those achieved by the best private sector companies.

A. lead their counterparts

B. in supporting moves

C. practices of government's

D. those achieved

10. 'Everybody holds hands. This is the energy that will get you through the evening. We're going to be a winning team. Let's make it the best shift we've ever had. Go for it, guys!'.

A. holds hands

B. get you

C. Let's

D. for it

11. Aspen, where the limousines have four-wheel drive and an empty plot can cost ten million dollars, has been declared the more expensive town in America.

A. where

B. four-wheel drive

C. has been

D. more expensive

12. Evidently, the increasing popularity of Internet shares has led to further investment out of this sector and there are persistent rumors of takeovers.

A. led to

B. out of

C. rumors of

D. of

13. Over 5000 years of Chinese Culture will soon have a world-wide audience, following to a collaboration between IBM Taiwan and the National Palace Museum in Taipei

A. years of

B. will soon have

C. following to

D. between

14. Woody Guthrie finally died, after a lengthy illness, in October 1967, but this project will help his name live on, and perhaps provoke a re-evaluation about his influence on popular music in the 20th century.

A. after a

B. live on

C. about his

D. in the

15. Movie directors are accused of assuming the audience is stupid. But contemporary thrillers seem more often to make the opposite mistake: assuming that the audience is astonishingly sophisticated, able to see into a plot in seconds.

A. are accused of

B. more often to

C. assuming that

D. see into

16. This is a film that proves not only that Duval can direct but, as if we didn't know it, that he is one of America strongest screen presences.

A. not only

B. as if

C. that

D. America

17. Education should emphasize our interdependence with peoples, with other species and with the planet as a whole.

A. should

B. our

C. with

D. as a whole

18. On the bottom of the New York MetroCard have three arrows and little white letters that say "Insert this way/This side facing you." What is it about that instruction that is so impossible to understand?.

A. have

B. On the bottom of

C. is it about

D. that is so

19. Charters are self-governed schools that operate independent of local school boards, however with public money.

A. however

B. are

C. that

D. of

20. Since 2001, the company's annual revenue from ticket sales and contributions grown by 85 percent, to $42.9 million.

A. grown

B. Since

C. annual

D. from

NAMA:MUHAMMAD RIZKI FAJRIN

KELAS:4EA14

NPM  :14212826

TUGAS 1 BAHASA INGGRIS